Price trends

Predict prices and prepare more accurate budgets: a tool for you

Price trends is a simple Excel tool to establish the link between price of pork x, feed cost y, based on data from the operation and the ASRA (Farm Income Stabilization Insurance: FISI) compensation for the coming months and years. Producers and management stakeholders who have to cost out budget forecasts will find this tool gives them a consistent framework to work with.

The tool gives price projections for pork, corn and soybean meal, and their overall impact on the prices of feed for sows, piglets and hogs. The forecast covers the current year and the following year, on a monthly basis for the next 12 months (cash budgets) as well as on an annual basis. These price forecasts are based on changes in the Chicago futures market. The forecasts are updated quarterly to reflect market changes with the shortest possible delay.

In order to adapt prices to the situation of each particular swine operation, the grain and feed price forecast are offered as indices; 2017 is the base year (index 100). This allows the operation/company to use its 2018 average input price and multiply it by the index for the specified period to obtain a price estimate for this period. For example, if the swine operation paid $230/t on average for its corn in 2017 and the 2018 index is 103, the company can budget for a price of $237/t for its corn in 2018 (i.e. $230/t x 103/100).

This tool uses price forecasts to calculate FISI compensation and applicable premiums. Calculations of compensation and dues are based on the application of the new FISI farrow-to-finish model costs, also called the basic model, corresponding to all operations analysed for the survey.

Important:
This Pricing Trends and FISI Projections model gives you an estimate of what the market prices for pork, feed and the ASRA compensation and premiums for 2018 and 2019 could be. But to do this, we apply the forecast price for 2018 and 2019 respectively on the known ASRA (FISI) 2012 model which is in force since January 1, 2014.
 
FREE SIMPLE COPY of Price Trends - May 2017 (tendances des prix) (Excel File) (French)

The quarterly publication Tendances des prix is available by subscription only. Click on the subscription form (French) to view the rates for subscribing to Tendances des prix or for a combined subscription including Tendances des prix, Men$uel PORC et Valeur des stocks.